On Thursday, the Trump administration announced a fresh wave of long-anticipated protectionist trade policies. Drawing inspiration from President William McKinley’s era, the administration has introduced a baseline 10% duty, alongside additional bilateral tariffs, pushing the overall U.S. tariff rate to levels not seen since the “Gilded Age” (1870–1913).
Financial markets reacted sharply. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all posted their worst single-day performances since the COVID-induced selloff of 2020.
Under the new framework, European goods—including wine—will face a 20% import tax. Naturally, this raises the question: what impact will these tariffs have on the fine wine market?
This is not the first time the Trump administration has targeted European wines. In October 2019, a 25% tariff was imposed on wines from the EU and UK (excluding Italy), following a WTO ruling in favour of the U.S. in its long-standing dispute over Airbus subsidies.
As shown in the highlighted section of the WineFi 10-Year Index, the implementation of the 2019 tariffs had a muted impact on the index’s value. This was followed by a noticeable uplift, driven by dovish monetary policies in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
What We Expect Going Forward
One of fine wine’s defining attributes is its longevity. Many wines only reach their optimal drinking window 5+ years after bottling. This allows U.S. buyers to sidestep immediate tariff exposure by purchasing wines in Europe, storing them in bond (free of duty and VAT), and taking delivery once tariffs are reduced or lifted. This flexibility should mitigate downward price pressure in the near term.
Fine wine also benefits from supply inelasticity and geographic uniqueness. Iconic wines from regions like Champagne and Burgundy cannot be replicated domestically. While tariffs are typically aimed at boosting local demand, inelastic supply and limited substitutes mean demand for European fine wine is unlikely to collapse. For example, Napa Chardonnay remains distinct in profile from White Burgundy, limiting true substitution.
Some consumers may shift from grand crus to premier crus or opt for second wines over first growths. However, the impact of this down-tiering can be softened through a diversified portfolio approach.
Finally, during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, fine wine offers meaningful diversification benefits due to its low correlation with traditional asset classes. As volatility returns to equity and bond markets, we expect growing investor interest in uncorrelated alternatives. Fine wine’s unique market dynamics make it a valuable addition to a well-diversified portfolio.
President Trump has since stated he remains open to negotiations following the negative market response. WineFi will continue to monitor and report on the evolving impact of U.S. tariffs on the fine wine sector.
